What is Moving Average

The moving average or MA is one of the most common and trend following technical indicators. Having spent little time looking at price charts you must have noticed that most often price of an instrument will move up and down. In fast moving markets you may find that the price be spikes up only to drop straight down later before surging up again increasing the potential for false signals. the moving average smooths the data and help filter out the noise from random price movements and makes it easier to spot the trend. 

MA are used to determine the direction of trends and to confirm reversals, To understand MA  when the price is above the MA line it is consider the currency to be in an uptrend in the opposite manner if the price is below the moving average line it is considered it to be in a downtrend. 

The crossover of the moving average line usually considered as trend reversals. Moving averages can also used to identify areas of support and resistance, many traders consider the moving average line as support and resistance level indicator and trades based on it. 

Often the price of an instrument will find support at the moving average line when the trend is up and will find resistance at the moving average line when the trend is down. so moving average will helps to identify whether the currency is moving up down or if it’s ranging or it can tell you if a trend is still in motion and whether it is reversing or losing momentum.

Moving average is considered as trend following or lagging indicator, therefore it will not warn you in advance about the trend reversals but it will confirm when a trend change has taken place at the most basic level when the price crosses up and over the moving average. traders consider this as a signal to buy once it crosses down under the moving average line it is considered as a signal to sell. 

There are two most popular type of Moving average.

  • Simple Moving average (SMA)
  • Exponential Moving Average(EMA)

Simple Moving Average 
Let’s discuss the simple moving average or SMA first and show you how its calculated, A simple moving average is formed by calculating the average price of a currency over a specific number of periods/days. it is possible to create moving averages from the Open, High, and low value  but most moving averages are created using the closing price. a 10-day simple moving average is calculated by adding the closing prices for the last 10 days and dividing the total by 10, this calculation gives equal weight to each day its called  moving average as the oldest price is dropped each time a new period becomes available.

Ensuring that the average is based only on the last X number of periods in our example for the last 10 days have in mind that the longer the simple moving average period the more it lags and the slower it is to reach to the most recent price movement and this brings us to its downside as equal weight is given to all periods considered in the calculation the simple moving average is slower to respond to rapid price changes that might prove to be important so how you counter this with another type of moving average either a weighted or an exponential moving average the weighted and exponential moving averages are calculated differently from one another but both types give more weight to recent periods and thus more emphasis on what traders are doing at the moment so as a result weighted and exponential moving average responds faster to price action  by distributing more weight to recent periods and less to older periods.

They reflect a quicker shift in sentiment which can be due to changes in supply and demand or important news events that impact the traded instrument to illustrate what we mean if you were to plot an exponential moving average and a simple moving average on a chart. you will see that the exponential moving average is closer to the current price than the simple moving average. apart from the type of moving average you also have to decide on the time period. this will largely depend on the type of trend you are analyzing.

Commonly used time periods 10 to 20 for short term trends
50 for midterm and 200 for long term trends. 

which moving average to use and the period will depend largely on your objective.

EMA or Exponential Moving Average
     Exponential moving average are also called exponentially weighted moving average and calculated by applying more weight to recent prices to reduce the lag as in simple moving averages, 

The weight applied to the most recent price depends on the specific period of the moving average, shorter EMA period to add more weight on the recent price. calculating EMA is not as simple as calculating an SMA.

The important thing is that the exponential moving average puts more weight on recent prices. therefore, it reacts quicker to recent price

Use simple moving averages if you’re planning to hold a position for a longer period of time as exponential moving average might be too sensitive and give false breakout signals you should also use simple moving averages if you just like to filter out the noise and random price fluctuations to determine the overall market direction. 

Exponential Moving Averages can be calculated in two ways – 
1. percent-based EMA, A percent-based EMA has a percentage as its single parameter 
2. period-based EMA, period-based EMA has a parameter that represents the duration of the EMA.

The formula for calculating exponential moving average is:
EMA (current) = ((Price (current) – EMA (prev)) x (Multiplier) + EMA (prev)

  • Percentage-based EMA, “Multiplier” is equal to the EMA’s specific percentage.
  • Period-based EMA, “Multiplier” is equal to 2 / (1 + N) where N is the specified number of periods.



The Choice of Moving average depends on your trading objective, time duration, type of trading. 

Introduction to Technical Analysis

When it comes to trading Fx or any instrument we look at technical analysis and chart to interpret the future price movements, but there is a common misconception among the traders. 
Technical analysis is not magic system that can predict each movements in the market and  most traders do believe that if only they can get a chart right, if only they understand the moving average right, if only they understand the MACD right they can become rich, Im so sorry because i have to disappoint you, Understanding technical analysis can only helps you improve your success ratio. 

For trading there are two main approach to analysis Market.

  1. Fundamental Analysis 
  2. Technical Analysis

Both can be used effectively if understood and put to use properly  

Fundamental Analysis: 
                Many traders use Fundamental Analysis as it would be easier to grasp the outcome of News releases, Headlines, Political Economic Event, Conflict news between two nation, terror attacks, quarterly earnings report, but the fact is Fundamental analysis cannot predict weather the instruments is going up or down, and it doesn’t tell you how far it goes up or how far it goes to fall down. 

Technical Analysis: 
                    Technical analysis is method of analyzing the historical price movements and volume to determine the probabilities of future price movements of securities like stock, currency, index etc,,, this technician looks to take emotion out by applying rules.A fundamental analyst looks at economic trends of a company or a country if an asset is price is lower than the expected he would buy, if the price is higher than expected he would sell, 
Very often technical analyst is not concerned with the fundamental strength or weakness of a company, the prevailing economic situation, corporate performance or government policies and believes that the chart has every bit of information and he looks weather the market is over brough or oversold and understand the mass psychology bias of buyers and seller in the market technicians believe that history tends to repeat, 

                                   “I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate.” 
                                                                                                                             – Sir Arthur Wing Pinero, 1893


The real time demand and supply for a particular instrument determines the price of that particular instrument at that particular time, Markets are manifestation of human psychology and they are driven by the emotional forces of greed and fear. These emotional forces influences and determines the demand and supply for stocks since the traders emotion and estimations change continuously for many reasons, the price of instrument will also fluctuates accordingly as per the demand and supply forces. This fluctuation serves as basic for technical analysis to predict future price movements. 
Demand increases if the trader hopes the profit increases, supply increases the the trader fear of loss increases, the imbalance in demand and supply forces results in rise and fall of prices .
With technical analysis a trader can easily understand the entry and exit points, price trend and other factors and predict where the price is heading. 


Principle of Technical Analysis, 
Each price represents a momentary consensus of value if all market participants, large commercial interest and small speculator, fundamental researcher, technicians and gambler at the moment of transaction 
Technical analyst believe that the current price chart reflects all the possible information. The market price reflects the sum knowledge of all participants, like traders, investors, portfolio managers, buyers, selles, market strategist, Technical analyst looks at the price and what it has done in the past and assume it will perform similarly in future under similar circumstances. 
A technical analyst know the price of everything but value of nothing and they focus only on two factors, the current price and historic price. 
The principles of support, trend, resistance, and trading in range can be used on any chart, Technical analysis can be used on any time frame and on any tradable instruments like stocks, commodity, Forex. Etc. 

Sharing my Ride Experience at The Regency Public School Vidyaranyapura Bangalore

Yesterday i had wonderful time sharing my travel story of India to Thailand solo Road Trip with the beautiful, eager young minds of The Regency Public School Vidyaranyapura
Special Thanks to Principal Usha ravi Ma’am and Sridevi Rajgopal Ma’am.
Its indeed a wow moment for me.

The Next Generation Biker

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India to Myanmar, Road Trip Documentation process and steps Blog-2

Dear Rider, 
  I have written in detail about my experience, odds i faced in procuring the permit and visa, Documents to submit, Do’s and Don’ts, so that you can save a lot of time, so i request you to read this blog till the end to understand the process of documentation for road trip to Myanmar and Thailand from India, 
BTW the new regulation and rules to enter Myanmar is not much in favor of travelers who is entering with own bike and car. The new rule is in favor of backpackers and whoever crossing the Indo-Myanmar bridge by foot and take a tuk-tuk. 


Day-1 I started at 6:10 from Bangalore, headed straight towards Kolkotta which is approximately 1950 KM from my Home. 


 
Day-4 Thursday I reached Kolkata late night around 22:00 hours, The perfect city ride took me over 120 minutes to reach old Kolkata, from here Myanmar embassy is around 9KM, I was so excited and worried, because I have just one day,, I wanted to make sure I have all documents with me, because one pending document will postpone the process for Monday and I planned to reach embassy on time to avoid long queue. 

Day-5, Embassy will open at 10:00 hours 
Note: Embassy operation time is not standard please visit their official website before visiting. 

I was feeling exhausted and sleepy, I saw the wristwatch it was 7:40 and i thought i still have time for a mini nap.

Oh,, Damn!!!!!!! its 10:10., I got ready and rushed to embassy thinking about the long wait and reached the destination at 11:30, it was a multi-story building, i saw lady sitting and peacefully reading newspaper, I came out quickly though I’m in a wrong office, i enquired with the security guard, He pointed at the gate through which I came out just now and said “That is the office” Wow, Thank God, No queue, and I’m the only person there to submit the document. 

I went near her cabin, I greet her and said i want to apply for Land Border Visa, 
She Replied:  To where
Me: “what a wacky questing” And I humbly replied her Off course Ma’am to Myanmar Land Border Visa.
She told I need to get few papers from Myanmar to apply for land border visa and for that i need to speak with Myanmar tour office and get those papers
Me: Ma’am I have all document. 
I took out all the documents and kept in front of her. 

List of documents I submitted for Land border visa
  1. Letter from Tour guide.(Talk to your tour guide he will provide this Letter)
  2. Permit copy, (Talk to your tour guide he will provide this Letter)
  3. Particulars of the participant( Passport, entry/ exit dates)
  4. Particulars of Bike(Registration, chassis, Engine number, color and year of manufacturing)
  5. Daily Itinerary.
  6. Passport copy
  7. Bike pictures side, back, and front.
  8. International driving license

She was surprised and took all the documents and my passport to check and meanwhile she gave me visa application form to fill, I was relieved and feeling happy and I quickly filled the form and gave to her and she told me to wait for some time while she took all my documents and started discussing with another staff. 

There was a bowl full of cookies on the table, Hungry and anxious, I started eating one by one,, while I was having my 6th cookie, she called me, her body language told me there is something missing,, “Oh God Don’t Make It Hard”,, as I expected she told me to get a letter from Immigration of Myanmar, Oh man, I’m really screwed now, i requested her and i tried to convince her these are standard sets documents all embassy takes. 

She replied “Maybe”, but we are not embassy we are consulate and we cannot process without that documents, I asked her where do I get that document, She said Myanmar, I said thanks and came out, i was in hurry to submit document because Saturday and Sunday will be off,,, 

I picked up my phone, and called my guide, “THE NUMBER YOU HAVE CALLED IS NOT REACHABLE’” Waaaatttt… I sat on my bike and redialing my phone. 

14:00 hours I went again inside to ask her “Ma’am Is there anyway i can get that letter from India”, She replied, No not at all,, This letter has to issued from Immigration department of Myanmar. 

I came back and sat on my bike again, its been more than 40 minutes now, the lady came out and walked straight toward me, she looked at my bike and registration number, and asked me are you coming from Karnataka, I replied “yes Ma’am” 
And you will ride this bike again to Myanmar I said “yes Ma’am”  
And then she got a call a walked away. 

Oh thank god,, The phone is ringing now,, I was so happy to hear my guide voice, 

Brother I was trying to reach you since a very long time, your phone was not reachable, my guide told he was traveling with his clients in a remote area and the network was bad, and I was in hurry and explained him everything he politely replied, “Immigration office would be closed now”. 

Damn!!! We ended our conservation and with no other choice I spent Saturday and Sunday in Kolkata, and waited till Monday for the letter,

Day-8 Dec-4th Monday morning  around 10 AM i got the call from my guide, he said he wanted to speak with concern person in Kolkata regarding the same therefore i got ready and reached embassy, and called the guide and handed over the phone to lady in the embassy, after their conservation, she handed me the phone and asked me to wait twenty minutes, 

I called my guide after 30 Minutes, he said there is no such letter can be provided from Immigration of Myanmar, that is not in the process for land border visa, but he asked me to wait few some more time, so that he can give me the confirmation, as he said he called and confirmed that they cannot provide any letter because it’s not in regular process. 
But he recommended me to reach New Delhi or Kathmandu to get the visa, as most of the travelers got easily from there, and the same was confirmed from the lady. 

Note: Myanmar Embassy is in New Delhi,  In Kolkata and other location we have only consulate, And consulate have no much power, hence the process may be delayed and ask for extra documents too. 

It’s always better to reach Myanmar embassy in New Delhi for Land border visa along with the above-mentioned documents.

From Kolkata, New Delhi is 1500 KM  and to Kathmandu is approximately 950 KM, 
I decided to ride towards Kathmandu, since its already noon I decided to leave the next day early morning. 

Day-9 Tuesday 5th Dec 07:00 hours Left early morning towards Nepal, covering around 575 KM i reached Birpur late night, Birpur is a small town of Bihar situated in the border of Indo Nepal, I was so excited about tomorrow, as i would be crossing Indo-Nepal Border,

It was so cold and dark, i reached lodge to check-in, It’s a normal routine we have to write From and To places in the log book,  After writing the log book the lodge owner told me Nepal border is closed for next three days due to Election,, 
Oh Damn!!! I’m screwed… Again,,,, 

Anyways i did not believe him, i was hoping i would be lucky to get through.

Day-10, Wednesday 6th Dec  07:30 AM, I told my Lodge to manage to prepare my bill i will check out now,

He replied politely, Sir trust me really the borders are closed for the next three days, if you don’t trust me, you can just ride to the border and enquire, if they allow then you take all your belonging and check out. 

Anyways the border is only in 5 KM distance,, i went straight to the border, when enquired at the Indian border Check post,  they had no restriction to cross they let me go,, But at Nepal Border post, they did not allow, due to election, I requested them so much, very much, too much, I normally i have no attitude of requesting much, but That day i had to request a lot to let me go, and the only good news is border is closed for two days, not three days, So i can enter Nepal on Friday Morning, Again it doesn’t help me much because Saturday and Sunday i cannot process for visa

Day-13 9th Dec, I started at 08:30 hours, It was a smooth entry in Nepal, There will be no problem to enter Nepal with Indian registered vehicle all you need to pay around Rs 120/- towards Road Tax per day, i paid Tax for a week and Rs 30 for Form, this is the simple process at Nepal customs, There was no formality at Indian Side, except the signature at the border on Logbook, If you are entering Nepal from Birpur, customs office is near Koshi bridge. 

Note: There is short Route to Kathmandu from Bardibas through this route you can save at least 4 hours than the usual route, this information was given to me by a custom officer, and i reached Kathmandu on this route, roads are pretty wide and good

From Birpur to Kathmandu its 340 KM and 8 hours ride, 
You have two options to reach Kathmandu,
  1. Ride as fast as you can and reach Kathmandu before dawn.
  2. Enjoy the ride and stop at the various landscape and river points, chat with locals.

I choose option two and be sure to fill up fuel tank where ever you get the opportunity, and after few kilometers from Bardibas you will ride through mountain passes and landscapes are good the road followed by river Don’t mind to take a break, and no need to worry if you could not reach Kathmandu before dawn, there are plenty of lodges are open few operates 24 hours and few closes early too due to cold weather condition, 

16:00 hours, started to get dark and I’m still 100 KM behind Kathmandu, and the climate is also getting cold, so i decided to stay at back and leave morning. 

Next day by noon i reached Kathmandu, Since internet will be not working, i had taken the list of hotels to check-in but i missed that paper and i don’t remember the name of the place too, 
After thinking hard for sometimes i remembered the street name, “Thamel” 

Thamel looks like Goa in India to me, Lot of foreigners, All kind of restaurants, Hotels, lodges, and home-stay, If you are planning to visit Kathmandu head straight to Thamel for the best stay, you will get rooms starting from $10. 


Day-15, 11th Dec, I reached  Myanmar Embassy in Kathmandu, and submitted the same documents which i submitted in Kolkata along with Visa Application Form, The process was very easy, Just remember INR is not accepted, you will have to pay 40 USD towards visa,and i was told to come back on Wednesday again to collect my passport, I requested to give on the same day or at least by tomorrow, It cost me another USD 10 extra to get it by tomorrow

Day-16 12th Dec By Noon i got my Myanmar Visa, but my entry date to Myanmar is postponed to 22nd Dec…

Since the entry date is postponed for 10 days i decided to ride to Bhutan, I will write about the document process and experience in Bhutan in another blog, In this blog, I will clear the process of entering Myanmar. 

After exploring all the fun and bliss, i headed towards my next destination “Myanmar” 
With all the documents in hand, like Permit, Visa, IDL, Bike Documents, Carnet, entering Myanmar was like a cakewalk. 

With all the above-mentioned documents, don’t wander here and there, follow the step by step process. 

Step-1 get stamped out your passport at Indian side in Moreh. This location is approximately 250 Meters behind the border gates of India and Myanmar. 

Step-2. Show your passport to BSF persons at the Gate, They will write down the details and allow you to pass the India border.


Step-3. Visit Customs office and clear your carnet process.


Step-4 head towards Immigration office of Myanmar,


Step-5 Call your Myanmar guide, he will take care from here,


Step-6 Enter the most anticipated and dreamed Indo Myanmar Bridge

Step-7 After entering the Indo-Myanmar bride, Immigration, Customs, and IDL will be taken care by your guide, you just need to walk along with him. 

Make sure you have converted INR to Myanmar Kyat before entry, 

Chapter-2 Beginners, Terminology

To become a successful trader one should  first be familiar with the basic terminologies “words that we use in everyday trading “ these concepts are easy to understand and require no financial background

Base Currency and Quote Currency ​

The quote currency tells us how much it is worth against 1 unit of the base currency. So if we say the EURUSD is trading at 1.3000 it means 1 euro equals $1.30. 

“Got it? Nooo”
Here i make even simpler to understand.
Currencies are always traded in pairs, this is because we always buy one currency by selling the other currency simultaneously

 

The first currency mentioned in the pair”EURO” is known as the base currency and the currency on the right USD in called the quote or secondary currency. Whatever action we do weather buying or selling always happens to base currency, if we buy EURUSD it means we are buying the base currency EUR by selling USD and if we want to buy USD then we simply sell the pair.

PIP or Point in Percentage

Pip or point in percentage A pip is a number value. In the Forex market, the value of the currency is given in pips. One pip equals 0.0001, two pips equal 0.0002, three pips equals 0.0003 and so on. One pip is the smallest price change that an exchange rate can make. Most currencies are priced to four numbers after the point. 
​Pip is used to calculate the profit and loss of each trade, the movement of EURUSD currency pair from 1.2000 to 1.2001 is a movement of one pip, if the price quote has only two places after the decimal like most commodity the pip equals to one cent.

BID price, Ask Price and Spread

All currency pairs have two prices, as we buy at a price and sell at different.

BID Price : A bid price is the highest price that a buyer is willing to pay

Ask Price : Ask price is the price at which the market is ready to sell. 

Spread : The difference between the price you can sell it and the price you can buy is spread at 
 Forex prices are always quoted using four numbers; so, for this example, EUR/USD bid price is of 1.1200 and ask of 1.1205. Thus, the spread would be 0.05, or $0.0005

Leverage: When most people think about trading, they think they would require a large amount of capital to begin, well this may be the case for stocks, bonds, and other investment, forex is much more accessible due to use of leverage. leverage is used by both investors and companies. Investors use leverage to increase the returns that can be provided on an investment, and brokers makes profit on spreads by allowing you to trade larger units/Lots

Leverage is the percentage of funds that you are borrowing from your broker and its usually stated in Ratio like 50:1 or 500:1, what it means to you as a trader, In the case of 50:1 for every $1 you invest your broker will let you borrow $50 and a trader using higher leverage are able to control a larger funds than what you are originally invested, and that can be really great if your trades are going in your direction, but if you are on the wrong side of a trade, you an lose a lot of money very quickly

Lots

A lot is what you determine for each pip you want to earn when you place a trade of certain units and these units called Lots. 

There are basically three lots size.

  1. Micro Lot = 1000 Units 
  2. Mini Lot = 10,000 units
  3. Standard lot = 100,000 units.

Chapter-1 Beginnners, Introduction to Forex

What is Forex

Before we understand about Forex market, let’s understand what is MARKET?  I hope you all are very familiar with the market,

Yes, you got it Right. The same market you visit to your daily life needs, when you are in need of fresh green vegetable you will visit the nearest Vegetable market, or if your requirement is meat, you will visit the meat market,

A market is a place, platform or system to exchange of goods and services or in simple terms to where a buyer meets sellers. 

There are various segments of market namely Real Estate Market this market typically involves agents representing both buyers and sellers for land, Job Market, a platform to connect employee and employer 
And Financial Market, A platform to exchange economics and the financial instruments are Stocks, Currency/Forex, Bonds, derivatives, money market, commodity, cryptocurrency.

Now let’s understand about Forex. 
Forex is an abbreviation of Foreign Exchange, also known as Fx or currency market and it is a place currency are traded, and the daily turn over exceeds over 5 trillion dollars, If compared with combined world stock market transaction, It doesn’t even come close to this market.

Why Fx Market.
Exchanging currencies are important to conduct imports and exports, a country like India imports the mobile phone from China and has to make payment in Dollars equivalent to chines yens, and India on the other side provides software services to the European country such various purpose of exchanging currencies globally makes the foreign exchange market large and easily liquid, 

Pros and Cons of Fx
Fores is a great starting point for traders, but many do end up trading excessively, because of leverage, where you only have to put up two percent of an overall contract size compared to one with the stocks, a small account can trade large size where win can be quite big you only need small deposit to obtain it. 

Fx is a 24 hour market, with a laptop and internet connection you can trade any hour of the day from anywhere in the world. 

Now, let’s discuss about the downside of forex, well let’s get back to leverage.

  • Big losses, If you are clueless about the exposer and how to wisely trade with leverage.
  • 24 hours, yes you could trade around the clock but there is handful of peak hours. When the moves are large it is worth your time trading.
  • No central Exchange, The exchange is actually a broker but now regulation has clamped down the bucket shops that have dominated the forex industry for years.

Learning to trade Forex can be a wonderful opportunity, success only through determination and professional mindset with understanding risk. 
Trade Forex like running a business with a reputed broker

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Book Love

Books are my everlasting friend, i can describe the pleasure and advantage endlessly, starting from improving vocabulary and knowledge to expand your imagination and without a doubt it helps to think way out of box, fall in love in reading book, i mean real books, not E-Book, i personally don’t encourage E-books, Though the device carries more advantage like carrying a whole library, and with advance features like dictionary, highlighter, maker, increasing and decreasing Fonts, and reminds the last page you read, this device just made everything easy and stopped you from thinking on various aspects, a E-book can replace anything of a book, but it cannot give the pleasure of holding and feeling the aroma of a book, only true book lover can feel what i’m saying.

 

Among my favorite collection of book is Nostradamus’s “The Future Prophecy”  the first edition was published in 1555 I hope most of you are familiar with the name, Nostradamus a french physician and best known for his book called Les prophesies, This book is a collection of future event and were written combination of French, Latin, and Greek, it is believed that the book is written in Anagram like rearranging words and phrases to discover the hidden meaning and some mythological and astrological reference with the combination of different language has put the scholars in great difficulty to decode the Nostradamus mind.

One such confusing  Quatrain is “Burning Book in year 2053,  I wish the decode of this quatrain by scholars to be again wrong, previously, according to book Hillary Clinton was suppose to win the US presidential election, based on the book i had invested on few companies which would rise if Hillary wins the presidential seat, but we all know who won the election, i had to book lose on few investment, and some at break even point, and switched few based on Fundamentals analysis, That’s OK, Rise and Fall are part of Investments 
Nostradamus also mentioned few shocking events in his book like, Birth of Antichrist, Rise of ISIS, Tsunami in Indonesia, World war-3, Armageddon “The End Of The World” incidents.

  You would surely enjoy reading this book

You can buy this book from Amazon.. Happy Reading. Don't Forget to leave your comment.